There are rivalries built over decades. Spain and England’s has been built in three years, and almost always with a trophy on the table.
In Sydney, in August 2023, a left-footed strike from Olga Carmona decided the World Cup final and crowned Spain for the first time. In Basel, in July 2025, England struck back in the final of the Euros: 1-1 after goals from Mariona Caldentey and Alessia Russo, and the title for the Lionesses on penalties. In April, at Wembley, the third instalment: 1-0 with an early goal from Lauren Hemp in what was by then a World Cup qualifier.
This Friday, at 21:00, the rivalry moves to the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. And although the table says it is a group-stage match, nobody in Palma is going to live it that way.
The maths, plain and simple
After four rounds of Group A3, England have 12 points and Spain 9. The defeat at Wembley left La Roja with no margin: only first place gives a direct ticket to the 2027 World Cup in Brazil; second place means a two-legged play-off in the autumn.
The arithmetic is simple and cruel. A win or a draw in Palma is enough for England to mathematically seal their qualification, because the head-to-head record — that 1-0 at Wembley — would give them the tie-breaker. Spain need to win. But there is an immediate reward the maths conceals: both sides arrive level on +9 in overall goal difference, so any victory makes Spain group leaders with one round to play. The margin will define how Tuesday the 9th is lived: winning by two or more, the head-to-head tie-breaker passes into Spanish hands and victory in Reykjavik will deliver the ticket without looking at anyone else; winning by a single goal, the lead will have to be defended on goals, with England hosting the same Ukraine on whom they have already inflicted half a dozen. Why that half-truth matters, in our column.
There is no kind version: either Spain win, or the ticket to Brazil is decided in the back rooms of a play-off.
What Wembley left behind
April’s match was a lesson condensed into three minutes. An early corner, a goal from Hemp past Cata Coll, and seventy-odd minutes of Spain crashing against an organised block: two efforts off the woodwork — from Olga Carmona and Edna Imade — and a fine save from Hannah Hampton just when the equaliser seemed ripe.
The response came four days later in Córdoba: 5-0 against Ukraine with a headed brace from debutant Imade, and goals from María Méndez, Eva Navarro and Vicky López. It served to repair the goal difference and, above all, to remind everyone that this Spain creates more than enough. Their problem at Wembley was not the football. It was the scoreboard.
The return that changes the midfield
The big news in Sonia Bermúdez’s squad — 25 players called up for this double window, the same backbone chasing Brazil — is the return of Aitana Bonmatí for a match of the highest demands. Recovered from the fibula fracture that kept her out for five months, the three-time Ballon d’Or winner returned in time to lift the Champions League in Oslo and once again forms, with Alexia Putellas and Patri Guijarro, the midfield that treats the ball better than any other on the planet.
Opposite them, Sarina Wiegman is rebuilding her defence out of necessity: without Leah Williamson (hamstring), without Mary Earps — retired from international football before the Euros — and with Hampton established between the posts. But the English side still has what it has always had: Hemp’s pace, Keira Walsh’s composure, Lucy Bronze’s craft, and a striker, Russo, who specialises in doing damage with very little.
Three keys for Friday
The start. England struck in the third minute at Wembley, and in the finals they have shown they do not need to dominate to go in front. Spain cannot give away another opening.
Set pieces. Hemp’s goal came from a corner. It is the classic leak against a team that defends with the ball: when they do not have it, English corners are an ambush.
Efficiency. Spain will have the ball and will have chances — they had them even at Wembley. The difference between the direct ticket and the play-off will lie, as in Basel, in the final metres.
The match
Spain - England · 2027 World Cup qualifying, Group A3, matchday 5 Friday 5 June, 21:00 · Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma (capacity 25,736) In Spain: La 1 and RTVE Play. Both squads in full, here.
This is how the national team presents the contest:
Son Moix will hand out no trophy. But between two national teams that have shared the last two major finals, it will decide which of them travels to Brazil through the front door. Sometimes group games are finals too. This is one of them.🃏 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻!
— Selección Española Femenina de Fútbol (@SEFutbolFem) June 5, 2026
España - Inglaterra.
🕘 21:00
📺 @La1
𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗩𝗜𝗔 y 𝗗𝗢𝗦𝗜𝗘𝗥: https://t.co/Ef9LM6wEZc#FIFAWWC | #JugarLucharYGanar pic.twitter.com/OhcT0TJaa0
