Algeria reached the semi-finals of the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations — and with them the 2027 World Cup, as the tournament awards four direct places and they go to the four semi-finalists — by beating Ivory Coast 1-2 at the Estadio Moulay Rachid in Casablanca. Ivory Coast led through Inès Konan on 30 minutes, went down to ten players on 42 when N’Sira Ouédraogo was sent off, and conceded both Algerian goals within six minutes of the second half.
The scoreline does not match the balance of chances. Ivory Coast produced 1.67 expected goals to Algeria’s 0.23, created three big chances to none, and had thirteen shots, ten of them from inside the box. They also hit the woodwork.
The dismissal did not change that pattern.
Ouédraogo, an 18-year-old forward, was shown a red card on 42 minutes with her side ahead. A player down, Ivory Coast still produced 0.99 expected goals in the second half to Algeria’s 0.13, and two of their three big chances came after the interval. Algeria had the ball — 62% possession — and turned it into twelve touches in the opposition box, against twenty-two for Ivory Coast.
The clearest chance of the match did not even hit the target.
On 62 minutes, at 1-1, Rebecca Elloh put a penalty wide. The Valencia winger had two shots all evening and accumulated 0.76 expected goals, the highest figure of the twenty-two players on the pitch: neither attempt was on target. She was substituted seven minutes later.
Algeria won with two shots their own model barely rated. Inès Khiri, on at half-time, equalised on 58 from a chance worth 0.06 expected goals. Six minutes later Amira Ould Braham scored from outside the area after a pass from captain Marine Dafeur: 0.02. Algeria’s two goals came to 0.08 between them.
The outcome is best explained in the two goalmouths.
Aramatou Diakité conceded 0.83 goals more than the quality of the shots she faced would suggest, and in the second half that figure was 1.72. At the other end, Chloé N’Gazi prevented 0.67. Errors leading to a goal finished at two for Ivory Coast and none for Algeria.
Ivory Coast arrived at these quarter-finals as the tournament’s highest scorers, having signed off from Group B with a win over Tanzania. They leave with the better attacking output of the tie, without a semi-final and without the World Cup place that winning it would have given them.
Algeria play that semi-final on Wednesday 12 against the winners of Malawi – Ghana. Ivory Coast lose their direct place and drop into the play-off, their second chance to reach Brazil, which they will contest on Thursday 13 against the losers of the same match. The full bracket is completed on Sunday.
