Senegal could finish the group stage with two victories and six points and still be eliminated.
Defeating Morocco may not be enough to avoid it. They might also need to pay attention to the winning margin and events in the simultaneous match between Kenya and Algeria.
All four teams enter the final round of Group A at the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations with a mathematical chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Morocco lead with six points, while Algeria and Senegal have three. Kenya are yet to earn a point.
If Algeria win, Senegal will need to defeat the hosts by at least two goals.
A one-goal victory may not be enough
A possible three-way tie on six points would be settled using the results between Morocco, Algeria and Senegal. All three would also be level on points in that head-to-head table, which means goal difference would decide the order.
Algeria defeated Senegal 2-0 in the opening round. Morocco then earned a 1-0 victory over Algeria.
Those results give Algeria a goal difference of +1 in the head-to-head table and leave Senegal with a two-goal deficit to make up in the table between the three teams.
If Senegal beat Morocco by one goal and Algeria defeat Kenya, the Algerians would finish first in the three-team tie-breaker. Morocco would take second place and Senegal would be eliminated.
A Senegal victory by two or more goals would change the order. They would move above Morocco in the tie-breaker and advance alongside Algeria.
That complication disappears if Algeria fail to win. Under that scenario, any Senegal victory over Morocco would secure qualification. A draw would only be sufficient if Kenya defeat Algeria.
Morocco have a wider margin for error. A draw will secure first place, while a one-goal defeat would still take them through even if Algeria win. The hosts can only be eliminated if Senegal beat them by at least two goals and Algeria defeat Kenya.
The same fixture closed the group one year ago
Morocco and Senegal also met in the third round of the previous Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.
A Yasmin Mrabet penalty in first-half stoppage time gave the hosts a 1-0 victory.
The defeat did not eliminate Senegal. The twelve-team format allowed the two best third-placed sides to advance, and Mame Moussa Cissé’s team claimed one of those places before losing in the quarter-finals.
Expansion to sixteen teams has removed that route. Only the top two in each group now qualify, and this time even a 1-0 victory could leave Senegal eliminated despite taking them to six points.
Morocco enter the rematch after defeating Kenya 4-0 and Algeria 1-0. Sanaâ Mssoudy decided the second game in the 84th minute and extended Morocco’s unbeaten run in WAFCON group matches to eight.
Senegal responded to their opening defeat against Algeria with a 1-0 victory over Kenya. Seynabou Mbengue scored the only goal, although Kenya struck the woodwork three times after the interval.
One year later, the same fixture will again bring the group to a close. This time, for Senegal, the result in the other stadium and the winning margin may matter as much as victory itself.
When and where is Senegal vs Morocco?
Senegal face Morocco at the Moulay El Hassan Stadium in Rabat on Monday, 3 August.
The match kicks off at 21:00 in Morocco and 22:00 in Spain, at the same time as Kenya vs Algeria.
Senegal vs Morocco
Monday, 3 August · 21:00 in Morocco
Moulay El Hassan Stadium, Rabat
