Ivory Coast have needed three matches to score eight goals.
Algeria have played seven matches since returning to the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations and conceded only one.
Those two routes to the quarter-finals meet in Casablanca on Saturday. The winner will advance to the semi-finals and qualify directly for the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil.
Ivory Coast can return to the World Cup twelve years after their only appearance. Algeria can qualify for the first time.
Eight goals from 4.39 xG
Ivory Coast arrived at the tournament without having scored throughout qualifying.
Senegal eliminated them after two goalless draws and a penalty shootout. The expansion from twelve to sixteen teams gave them a second chance after they had already been eliminated.
In their first WAFCON match since 2014, they defeated Burkina Faso 4-1.
They then drew 2-2 with South Africa and won 1-2 against Tanzania. Ivory Coast finished top of Group B with seven points and scored in all three matches.
Their eight goals have come from four players. Inès Konan has three; Grâce Sery and N’Sira Ouédraogo have two each; Rebecca Elloh scored the other from the penalty spot.
Their attacking output exceeds the quality of the chances they created.
Ivory Coast generated 2.16 expected goals against Burkina Faso, 0.62 against South Africa and 1.61 against Tanzania. That is 4.39 in total for eight goals.
The difference was particularly clear against South Africa. The Ivorians attempted four shots, put only two on target and Sery converted both from outside the penalty area. They did not register another shot on target in the second half, and South Africa equalised in the 99th minute.
The final group match brought a different performance. Ivory Coast accumulated fifteen attempts, put seven on target and recorded thirty-four touches in Tanzania’s penalty area. Ouédraogo and Konan scored the two goals that secured first place.
Six clean sheets in seven matches
Algeria have not needed to score as many.
They played four matches at the previous edition without conceding. They kept clean sheets throughout the group stage and again in the quarter-finals, although Ghana eliminated them on penalties after 120 goalless minutes.
The run continued in this edition with a 2-0 opening victory over Senegal.
Morocco needed until the 84th minute to end it. Sanaâ Mssoudy converted the only big chance of the derby and ended Algeria’s sequence of 590 consecutive WAFCON minutes without conceding.
It is the only goal they have conceded in their last seven matches at the tournament.
Algeria kept another clean sheet against Kenya and won 0-2. Marine Dafeur opened the scoring from a direct free-kick before Lynda Bendris pressed the Kenyan goalkeeper into an error and added the second.
Their defence has carried Algeria into the quarter-finals for a second consecutive edition despite scoring four goals, half as many as Ivory Coast.
It has also hidden their difficulties when required to break down a compact structure. Algeria attempted only three shots against Morocco, all from outside the penalty area, and generated 0.07 expected goals.
One can return and the other can make their debut
Ivory Coast made their only World Cup appearance at Canada 2015.
They qualified by finishing third at the 2014 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations, their last appearance at the tournament before this edition. There were no quarter-finals at the time: the top two teams in each group advanced directly to the semi-finals.
Algeria have never played at a World Cup or reached the WAFCON semi-finals. This is only their second knockout appearance after they went out in the group stage in each of their first five tournaments.
Victory would rewrite the history of either side.
Defeat would not completely close the route to Brazil. The losing side will face the loser of Malawi v Ghana on 13 August. The winner of that match will advance to the FIFA Play-Off Tournament.
When and where Ivory Coast v Algeria will be played
The match takes place at the Moulay Rachid Stadium in Casablanca on Saturday 8 August.
Kick-off is at 18:00 local time and British Summer Time (17:00 GMT). The match is on Channel 4 in the UK, and free on CAF’s YouTube channel where there is no local broadcaster.
