Ivory Coast have needed sixteen shots to score six goals at this Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.
Two were scored by an 18-year-old.
Grâce Sery scored twice from outside the box against South Africa and helped the Ivorians enter the final round unbeaten. A draw against Tanzania will confirm their return to the knockout stage after twelve years and take them into the quarter-finals for the first time.
The Twiga Stars have three points and also control their own fate. Victory will send them through for the first time.
Two shots on target, two goals
Ivory Coast attempted only four shots against South Africa.
Sery put two on target and scored with both. She opened the scoring in the 18th minute and struck again in the 36th. N’Sira Ouédraogo provided both assists, and both shots came from outside the penalty area.
No other Ivorian attempt was on target.
South Africa finished with eleven shots, 63% possession and 1.59 expected goals to their opponents’ 0.62. Ivory Coast opened up a two-goal lead, but Thembi Kgatlana reduced the deficit before Hildah Magaia equalised in the 99th minute.
Ivory Coast spent almost the entire second half defending. They attempted only one shot, recorded one touch inside the opposition penalty area and generated 0.06 expected goals after the break. They finished the match with 28 clearances and 21 fouls.
The draw nevertheless kept them top of the group with four points.
Six goals from sixteen shots
That efficiency was already evident against Burkina Faso.
Ivory Coast scored four times from twelve attempts. Rebecca Elloh opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the seventh minute before Inès Konan added two goals inside the opening 23 minutes.
Ouédraogo completed the scoring during the second half. The midfielder enters the final round having contributed directly to three goals: she scored against Burkina Faso and assisted both of Sery’s goals against South Africa.
The collective return is six goals from sixteen shots. Ivory Coast have converted 37.5% of all their attempts, a level of efficiency that leaves them one point from the quarter-finals.
Tanzania lost after their first victory
Tanzania began the tournament by securing the first WAFCON victory in their history.
Diana Msewa scored against South Africa during the first half before Hasnath Ubamba struck the winner in the 87th minute. Four days later, the same forward was sent off against Burkina Faso.
The Twiga Stars equalised with ten players through Aisha Mnunka, but Balkissa Sawadogo scored Burkina Faso’s winner in the 80th minute.
Tanzania produced 1.72 expected goals, almost exactly the same figure as their opponents, and finished with 52% possession. However, they put only two of their ten shots on target and recorded six touches in the opposition penalty area compared with Burkina Faso’s 28.
Ubamba will miss the final group match through suspension. Tanzania are therefore without the scorer of the goal that delivered their first WAFCON victory at the seventh attempt.
A draw sends Ivory Coast through and could also qualify Tanzania
Ivory Coast will qualify if they win or draw. Victory will also guarantee first place in the group.
Defeat would not necessarily eliminate them. If Burkina Faso draw with South Africa, the Ivorians would finish level with Burkina Faso on four points and advance on the strength of their 4-1 victory in the opening round.
If South Africa win, Ivory Coast could also finish level with Banyana Banyana on four points. Their 2-2 draw would mean overall goal difference and goals scored come into play.
Tanzania have less room for error. Victory will guarantee qualification. A draw will only be enough if South Africa defeat Burkina Faso, because the Twiga Stars would win the tie-breaker against Banyana Banyana through their 2-1 victory in the opening round.
Ivory Coast are one point from returning to the knockout stage after twelve years and reaching the quarter-finals for the first time. Tanzania need to win to qualify without depending on anyone else, although a draw would also be sufficient if South Africa defeat Burkina Faso.
The match will kick off at 21:00 on Tuesday at the Larbi Zaouli Stadium in Casablanca, at the same time as Burkina Faso v South Africa.
