Burkina Faso needed five matches and two tournament appearances to secure their first Women’s Africa Cup of Nations victory.
Four days later, they can claim their second, reach the quarter-finals for the first time and eliminate the 2022 champions.
South Africa enter the final round of Group B with one point. A defeat or draw will end their run of nine consecutive top-four finishes.
Even victory does not guarantee their survival.
Burkina Faso are no longer chasing their first victory
Burkina Faso began the tournament with a 4-1 defeat by Ivory Coast.
They arrived in Morocco after winning all four of their qualifying matches, but conceded three times during the opening 23 minutes and had goalkeeper Faoziatou Ouédraogo sent off in the second half.
The response came against Tanzania.
Adèle Kabré opened the scoring in the 43rd minute. Aisha Mnunka equalised after Hasnath Ubamba had left Tanzania with ten players, but captain Balkissa Sawadogo scored the winner in the 80th minute.
Burkina Faso attempted 18 shots, put six on target and recorded 28 touches in the opposition penalty area. Tanzania finished with more possession but managed only two attempts on target.
Alimata Bélem held the defence together with fifteen clearances, more than twice as many as any other player in the match. The Eibar centre-back also made three interceptions without committing a foul.
The result moved Burkina Faso on to three points and above Tanzania on their head-to-head record.
Another win will guarantee qualification regardless of what happens in the other stadium. A draw will also be enough if Tanzania fail to defeat Ivory Coast.
South Africa created more than their results show
Banyana Banyana began the tournament with 24 shots against Tanzania.
Nine were on target. Karabo Dhlamini struck the woodwork and Bambanani Mbane scored before half-time. South Africa nevertheless lost 2-1 after Hasnath Ubamba scored the winning goal in the 87th minute.
They again created more chances than their opponents against Ivory Coast and again found themselves behind.
The Ivorians scored twice with their only two attempts on target. Thembi Kgatlana reduced the deficit during the second half. South Africa had 63% of the possession, attempted eleven shots and produced 1.59 expected goals but needed until the 99th minute to equalise.
Hildah Magaia found the net during stoppage time, although her first goal was ruled out following a video review. The forward scored again in the 99th minute to rescue her team’s first point.
Their combined return from the two matches is 35 shots, fourteen on target, three goals and one point.
Victory may not be enough
South Africa need to defeat Burkina Faso while monitoring Tanzania v Ivory Coast.
An Ivory Coast victory would send South Africa through: the Ivorians would finish first with seven points and Banyana Banyana second with four.
A draw in the other match would leave Tanzania and South Africa level on four points. Tanzania’s 2-1 victory in the opening round would send the Twiga Stars through on the head-to-head result.
If Tanzania win, they will reach six points and second place will be decided between South Africa and Ivory Coast. The teams drew 2-2, meaning overall goal difference and goals scored would come into play.
Burkina Faso have a simpler route. If they win, they qualify. If they draw, they need Tanzania to fail to win.
Four days ago, they were still searching for the first victory in their history. Now they can reach the quarter-finals and eliminate a team who have progressed to at least the semi-finals in nine consecutive editions.
The match will kick off at 21:00 on Tuesday at the Moulay Rachid Stadium in Casablanca, at the same time as Tanzania v Ivory Coast.
