Malawi beat Egypt 1-3 at the Moulay El Hassan Stadium in Rabat, took six points from their first two matches in the history of the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations and left the Egyptians unable to qualify.
They did it with ten players from the 52nd minute.
And they did it against Egypt’s best performance of the tournament. In their opener, the 6-0 defeat by Zambia, Egypt produced 0.11 expected goals and touched the ball inside the opposition box only once. Tonight they reached 1.67 and nineteen touches.
Four big chances, one more than their opponents
The final expected goals split was 1.67 for Egypt and 1.74 for Malawi.
Egypt created four big chances; Malawi three. They had fifteen shots to their opponents’ twenty-one and finished with more duels won, 59 to 53.
The difference was accuracy and territory. Malawi put ten shots on target to Egypt’s five, gathered thirty touches in the opposition box to nineteen and won fourteen corners to one.
Egypt goalkeeper Shehata made seven saves and still finished in the red: 0.17 goals worse than the model expected from the shots she faced. Mercy Sikelo, at the other end, finished on +0.81.
Temwa Chawinga scored and set one up
Rose Kadzere opened the scoring in the 35th minute after a pass from Temwa Chawinga. Faith Chinzimu added the second in first-half stoppage time.
Kadzere ended the match with five shots, a goal and an assist. Chawinga with two shots, a goal and an assist: her efforts were worth 0.51 expected goals and reached 1.14 once their placement was counted.
The two swapped roles in the 68th, when Chawinga scored the third set up by Kadzere. By then Malawi had spent sixteen minutes a player down.
The sending-off changed nothing
Rose Alufandika was shown a straight red card in the 52nd minute, with the score at 0-2.
Egypt responded: in the second half they produced 0.90 expected goals to Malawi’s 0.62 and had eight shots to seven. Iman Hassan, who had come on at half-time, headed in on 71 minutes.
It was not enough. Malawi had already scored the third three minutes earlier, and the rest of the match went by in 46 Egyptian clearances to sixteen.
Egypt cannot qualify
Malawi have six points from six. Egypt have none from six, with a single match left.
That match, against Nigeria on 5 August, no longer helps them. Even a win would leave them on three points, the same as Zambia, and the tie is settled on the head-to-head: Zambia beat them 6-0.
Group C will be decided later tonight in Nigeria–Zambia. If Zambia win, Nigeria go out with a round still to play.
