Nigeria and Zambia began the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations in positions few would have anticipated.
The champions lost 3-2 to tournament debutants. Zambia scored six goals, produced 4.98 expected goals and finished the opening round top of Group C.
They meet in Rabat on Saturday.
A match between the two leading candidates to win the group has also become Nigeria’s first test of survival. Another defeat could leave the Super Falcons eliminated before the final round.
Zambia face a different question: how much of their 6-0 victory over Egypt can they reproduce against opponents who have dominated almost all of their previous meetings?
Nigeria had the ball, but Malawi created the better chances
Nigeria’s defeat unfolded during an extraordinary final 20 minutes.
The match remained goalless until the 73rd minute. Temwa Chawinga opened the scoring, Tabitha doubled the lead six minutes later and the two teams traded another three goals during stoppage time.
Nigeria finished with 55% possession, 13 shots and 1.96 expected goals, slightly above Malawi’s 1.83. The debutants, however, created four big chances to the champions’ two. Their shots on target generated 3.27 expected goals on target, more than twice the Super Falcons’ total.
Nigeria had more of the ball but conceded the clearest opportunities when the Chawinga sisters found space to run into.
They will need to recover the defensive control that carried them to the title in the previous edition, when they went through the group stage and quarter-final without conceding.
Losing an opening match is not unfamiliar territory. Nigeria began the 2018 tournament with defeat against South Africa and finished it by lifting the trophy. They lost to Banyana Banyana again in their first match of 2022 and eventually finished fourth.
There is less room for recovery this time: only the top two teams in each group advance to the quarter-finals.
Banda turned the siege into a rout
Zambia took until the second half to turn their dominance of Egypt into a rout.
The Copper Queens attempted 15 shots and recorded 30 touches inside the penalty area during the opening 45 minutes, but reached the interval with only a narrow lead provided by Racheal Nachula’s penalty.
Then Barbra Banda took over.
The captain converted another penalty in the 60th minute, scored again three minutes later and added two more goals during the closing stages. She also provided the assist for Eneless Phiri.
Banda was directly involved in five of Zambia’s six goals. The Copper Queens finished with 34 shots, 12 efforts on target and 55 touches inside the penalty area. Egypt produced 0.11 expected goals and touched the ball inside Zambia’s box only once.
Nigeria represent a far more demanding test. Banda and Racheal Kundananji had scored three group-stage goals each before facing the Super Falcons in the quarter-finals of the previous edition. Neither managed a shot on target.
No Zambian has scored against Nigeria
Nigeria and Zambia have met four times at the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.
The Super Falcons won 6-0 in 2014 and 4-0 in 2018. Zambia responded with a 1-0 victory in the 2022 third-place play-off, although the only goal was recorded as a Chiamaka Nnadozie own goal after Evarine Katongo’s shot struck the post and rebounded off the goalkeeper.
Nigeria regained control with a 5-0 victory in the quarter-finals of the previous edition. They required only 11 shots to score five goals and prevented Zambia from recording a single attempt on target.
The overall record stands at three Nigerian victories, one Zambian win and 15 Super Falcons goals to one for the Copper Queens. No Zambian player has yet scored against Nigeria in the tournament.
After scoring four times in her opening match, Banda now has the opportunity to change that record.
Nigeria will know exactly what they need before kick-off
Zambia and Malawi enter the round with three points. Nigeria and Egypt remain without a point.
Both teams will know the result of Egypt–Malawi before kick-off. If Malawi avoid defeat, a Zambia victory would eliminate Nigeria and send the Copper Queens into the quarter-finals.
A Super Falcons win would move them level with Zambia and take the qualification battle into the final round. A draw would leave Nigeria needing to defeat Egypt while awaiting the outcome of Malawi–Zambia.
A year ago, Nigeria used this fixture to reassert their position within African football. They must do so again to prevent their title defence from becoming seriously compromised.
Zambia have the opposite opportunity: to show that their six goals against Egypt and the progress of recent years are enough to rewrite a fixture historically dominated by the champions.
Nigeria–Zambia Saturday, 1 August · 21:00 local time Al Madina Stadium, Rabat