Malawi have played two matches in their entire Women’s Africa Cup of Nations history.
They have won both.
And they can still be eliminated.
The debutants lead Group C with six points after beating Nigeria 3-2 and Egypt 3-1. Nigeria and Zambia have three points, while Egypt are bottom without a point.
A draw against Zambia would guarantee Malawi first place. A one-goal defeat would also take them through, regardless of what happens between Egypt and Nigeria.
They would be in danger only if they lose by two or more goals and Nigeria win.
In that scenario, three teams would finish on six points and the tiebreaker would consider only the matches played between them. Zambia and Nigeria would advance, while Malawi would be eliminated after beginning the tournament with two victories.
Zambia can win and still go out
Zambia’s situation is even stranger.
The Copper Queens need to win to avoid relying on a Nigeria defeat, but not every result will be enough if the defending champions also win.
Malawi defeated Nigeria 3-2 and Nigeria beat Zambia 1-0. If Zambia now win 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2, all three teams would also be level on goal difference in their head-to-head matches.
Malawi would finish ahead on goals scored, while Nigeria would rank above Zambia because of Saturday’s victory. The Copper Queens could therefore win the match and still be eliminated.
A victory by two or more goals would guarantee their qualification. A 4-3 win — or any higher-scoring victory by a one-goal margin — would also be enough because Zambia would move above Nigeria on goals scored in the tiebreaker.
If Nigeria do not beat Egypt, any Zambia victory would send both Southern African teams through.
From 4.98 expected goals to 0.37
Zambia arrive after producing two completely different performances.
They opened with a 6-0 victory over Egypt, taking 34 shots and generating 4.98 expected goals. Barbra Banda scored four times.
Four days later, they lost 1-0 to a Nigeria side that had been down to ten players since the 40th minute. Zambia produced 0.37 expected goals, failed to create a single big chance and Banda completed the full match without attempting a shot.
The Copper Queens recorded 22 touches inside the Nigerian penalty area but managed only two shots from inside it. They now need to rediscover the penetration shown in their opening match against a team that have conceded three goals in two games.
Temwa Chawinga has contributed to four goals
Malawi have scored six goals, with Temwa Chawinga directly involved in four.
The forward scored twice against Nigeria before adding a goal and an assist against Egypt. Rose Kadzere also scored and assisted on matchday two, when the Scorchers finished with ten players.
Rose Alufandika is suspended following her red card against Egypt. Head coach Lovemore Fazili has confirmed that he has a replacement ready in defence and that his team will not set out to protect a draw.
“We are focused on winning the game, not thinking about a draw,” he said before the match.
Asimenye Simwaka has also rejoined the Malawi squad.
Neighbours with few secrets
The two teams know each other well.
The Football Association of Malawi says their most recent meeting ended 1-1. Before that, they played two friendlies in February 2025: Zambia won the first 2-0 before Malawi responded with a 3-2 victory.
“There are not many tactical secrets,” Zambia head coach Nora Häuptle acknowledged, describing the teams as similar in profile and noting that both have several players based abroad.
Malawi v Zambia will be played at Al Madina Stadium in Rabat on Wednesday 5 August at 21:00 local time. Egypt and Nigeria meet simultaneously at the Olympic Stadium.
The two matches will decide the two Group C places in the quarter-finals.
