Nigeria enter the final round of Group C in a qualifying position, but with nothing secured.
The champions have three points, level with Zambia and three behind Malawi. A win or a draw against Egypt will book their place in the quarter-finals. Defeat, however, eliminates them: no result can save Nigeria if they lose to the Egyptians.
And there is an uncomfortable caveat: not even a win fully guarantees it.
The outcome also depends on the Malawi–Zambia match being played at the same time. If Zambia beat Malawi 4-3 — or by any higher-scoring one-goal margin — Malawi, Nigeria and Zambia would all finish on six points and the champions would drop to third despite winning their own game.
Something similar applies to a draw. Nigeria beat Zambia 1-0 on matchday two, and that head-to-head result puts them above the Copper Queens if the two finish level on four points. A draw is therefore enough… unless Zambia beat Malawi: in that case Malawi and Zambia would take the two places, and Nigeria would go out.
Egypt have no chance left
Egypt reach the final round already mathematically eliminated.
The Cleopatras have lost both matches and cannot reach the quarter-finals with any result: even if they beat Nigeria, Zambia would finish above them on the tiebreaker thanks to that opening-day 6-0. Their elimination was sealed in Rabat four days ago.
What remains is pride — and the power to decide the champions’ fate.
Egypt went from 0.11 to 1.67 expected goals
The difference between Egypt’s two performances has been considerable.
They produced 0.11 expected goals, recorded only one touch inside the opposition penalty area and lost 6-0 to Zambia.
Four days later, they generated 1.67 expected goals against Malawi. Egypt attempted 15 shots, put five on target, recorded 19 touches inside the penalty area and created four big chances, one more than their opponents.
They lost 1-3 despite playing the final 40 minutes with an extra player. Half-time substitute Iman Hassan scored Egypt’s only goal of the tournament.
That improvement comes too late for the standings, but Egypt can turn it into their first win of the tournament against the most successful team on the continent.
Nigeria without Demehin and Echegini
Nigeria responded to their 2-3 defeat against Malawi by beating Zambia 1-0.
Asisat Oshoala scored in the eighth minute and the Super Falcons protected their lead despite playing with ten from the 40th minute. Zambia spent 50 minutes with a numerical advantage but produced only 0.37 expected goals and failed to create a single big chance.
The effort came at a cost for Nigeria.
Oluwatosin Demehin is suspended after being sent off against Zambia. Jennifer Echegini will also miss the match after receiving a yellow card in each of Nigeria’s opening two fixtures.
The Nigeria Football Federation has suggested that Christy Ucheibe could partner Osinachi Ohale in central defence. Toni Payne may replace Echegini in midfield alongside Rasheedat Ajibade and Halimatu Ayinde.
Nigeria have already beaten Egypt 6-0
Egypt and Nigeria have met only once at the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.
That encounter also came during the group stage, in 1998, and Nigeria won 6-0.
The Super Falcons completed that group stage with twenty goals scored and none conceded. They then defeated Cameroon 6-0 in the semi-finals and beat Ghana 2-0 in the final.
Twenty-eight years later, Nigeria face Egypt again with their place in the tournament at stake. The Super Falcons have never been eliminated in the group stage and have always reached at least the semi-finals.
Egypt v Nigeria will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rabat on Wednesday 5 August at 21:00 local time. Malawi and Zambia meet simultaneously at Al Madina Stadium.
The two results will decide the two Group C places in the quarter-finals.
