In 2018, Ghana only needed a draw against Mali to continue at their own Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.
They lost 2-1 and went out.
Eight years later, the two sides meet again on the final group matchday with the same equation. The Black Queens will reach the quarter-finals with any draw; the Lady Eagles need to win.
Both have three points, but Ghana have a goal difference of +1 while Mali are on zero. If they draw, they will also be level on head-to-head points and Ghana’s superior overall goal difference will send them through.
Neither side depends on what happens between Cape Verde and Cameroon. The Indomitable Lionesses have already secured first place after defeating both Ghana and Mali; Cape Verde have been eliminated.
The final place from Group D will be decided at the Moulay Rachid Stadium.
The same situation as in 2018
This will be the fourth meeting between Ghana and Mali in the competition.
The first came in 2002. The Black Queens won 2-0 and went on to reach the final, where they lost to Nigeria.
Ghana have not beaten the Lady Eagles since.
Their 2018 meeting also brought the group stage to a close. Ghana entered the match with four points and Mali with three. A draw was enough for the hosts; Mali had to win.
Mali prevailed 2-1, finished second behind Cameroon and eliminated Ghana.
That victory took Mali beyond the group stage for the first time. They then reached the semi-finals and eventually finished fourth, the best result in their history.
The teams met again at the last edition. Alice Sarpong put Ghana ahead before Aïssata Traoré equalised in the second half. The 1-1 draw allowed both to reach the quarter-finals: Ghana finished second and Mali progressed as one of the best third-placed sides.
The current format does not offer that route. Only the top two teams in each group advance, and Cameroon have already claimed one of the places.
Ghana have created more than they have converted
Ghana’s advantage comes from their opening 2-0 victory over Cape Verde.
The scoreline was better than their finishing.
The Black Queens attempted 26 shots and generated 3.13 expected goals. Doris Boaduwaa opened the scoring in the sixth minute, but Cape Verde’s Eleia Vieira put the second into her own net.
Ghana again created chances without converting them against Cameroon. They attempted eleven shots, reached 1.00 expected goals and forced Michaely Bihina into three saves. Evelyn Badu found the net in the 79th minute, but a video review ruled out the equaliser for offside.
Across their two matches, Ghana have accumulated 37 shots and 4.13 expected goals. Only one Ghanaian player has scored.
That lack of finishing does not change their situation. A 0-0 draw will also take them through.
Mali have scored in both matches and need to win
Mali’s campaign has followed the opposite pattern.
The Lady Eagles have generated 3.02 expected goals and scored four times, with four different players finding the net.
Aïssata Traoré converted a penalty against Cameroon, although Mali lost 2-1. Oumou Koné, Fatoumata Niakaté and Fatoumata Diarra then scored in the 3-2 victory over Cape Verde.
That result kept Mali alive but also exposed their defensive vulnerability. They have kept only one clean sheet in their 29 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations matches and have conceded in both games at this edition.
Against Ghana, they cannot protect the draw or wait for events in the other match. They need to finish ahead.
Victory will take Mali into the quarter-finals for a second successive edition. Any other result will send through the Black Queens, who returned to the continental podium last year after defeating South Africa in the third-place play-off.
The side who advance will face Malawi on Sunday. Winning that quarter-final would mean reaching the last four and securing one of Africa’s four places at the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.
In 2018, Ghana entered their final group match knowing a draw would be enough.
Mali showed then that being in that position does not always mean holding the advantage.
Mali v Ghana
Thursday 6 August · 21:00 in Morocco / 21:00 BST
Moulay Rachid Stadium, Casablanca
